Government Bailout Options
The long anticipated government housing bailout should be announced within the next two weeks. The economy has seen a number of indirect initiatives in assisting to help the housing market with both fiscal and monetary policy coordinating efforts to help the troubled market. There have been a wide variety of reports on what form of bailout and to what extent the government would become involved.
Critics have argued that the government does not need to increase the tax burden for individuals who did not make poor financial decisions or get greedy trying to refinance their homes into teaser rate programs. However, even the most staunch critics of the government having a direct role in fixing the problem are now beginning to ease on their opposition as the economy heads into a full blown recession and U.S. home values have dropped almost 10% in value over the past twelve months.
There are a number of items all but guaranteed to be incorporated in the upcoming legislation including:
- A larger role for the Federal Housing Administration (FHA)
- Tax incentives to buy foreclosed homes
- Financial incentives for lenders to reduce the balance on mortgages where home owners owe more than the value
- The role of the Fed continuing to grow in oversight of the mortgage market
- Better funding of education and home counseling programs
The real challenge in correcting the downward spiral of the housing market is a simple lesson in economics, supply versus demand. The supply of homes continues to grow with foreclosures and bank owned homes being a large contributor and the demand from buyers is limited because of lenders restricting underwriting guidelines. Fixing this balance will be critical in bringing back the real estate market.
Unemployment rate is now above 5%
The nations unemployment rate shot above 5% for the first time since 2003.
For the second month in a row, the job market posted a negative figure, this month a total of 80,000 jobs were lost. The job market is simply another indication that the U.S. economy is in a period of recession. The interesting part of yesterday’s news is that the stock market has already priced in a negative figure and did not have a significant sell off, even with the disappointing news. Many economists are now predicting that the Fed will be forced to cut the Fed funds rate by and additional half percent later in the month. The yield on the ten year bond dropped below 3.5% which is good for long term mortgage rates. The market mentality has shifted from fears of a recession, to acknowledging that the economy is in a recession and simply trying to determine how long it will last. This is good news for individuals looking to refinance their mortgage as you should expect fixed mortgage rates to continue to hover under six percent.
Bernanke catches up with rest of country
The U.S. economy has been a disaster for the better part of the past six months. If you listened to speeches by Ben Bernanke during that period you would have never heard the acknowledgement that the U.S. economy is in a recession.
This finally happend today! The Fed has cut the Fed Funds rate a full two pecent since the beginning of the year. Congress has issued rebate checks in the amount of one hundred and fifty billion dollars, but there has never been an acknowledngement that the U.S. economy was in a recession. The fact that the economy lost jobs in the month of February and one of the largest investment banks in the world Bear Stearns was facing near bankrupcy was a sure sign that things were not well on wall street. U.S. home values have decreased by over 10% over the past twelve months.
Bernanke’s testimony is curious as the stock market staged one of the largest rallies in U.S. history rising by almost 400 pts to start the second quarter of trading. Many investors believe that the worst of the credit crisis is now over and the U.S. economy, while certainly in a period of recession should begin to show signs of life by the third or fourth quarter of this year. The Fed chairman has been active in working to bring the economy out of it’s down turn, no matter how he wanted to phrase this in the past.